"It's unreal": Why Russia will not build 1,000 aircraft by 2030

Aviation expert Patrakov stated back in 2022 that it was impossible to implement the plans in the CPGA

It is impossible to implement the Comprehensive Program for the Development of the Civil Aviation Industry (CPGA) until 2030. This opinion was voiced in an interview with"Perviy Technicheskiy" by aviation expert, board member of the Association of Small Aviation Enterprises (MalAP), founder of the flight safety and certification service RunAvia, Andrey Patrakov.

According to him, the situation is natural - over the past 20 years, Russia has destroyed supply chains, lost competencies and critically reduced the volume of its own production of components.

Now, Patrakov emphasizes, only a few dozen aircraft have been assembled, but they all stand without the necessary components - they are physically lacking.

I was one of the first to say back in 2022 that the CPGA plans until 2030 are, to put it mildly, optimistic. I don't know anyone in the aviation industry who really believes in the implementation of these plans. I have been talking about this reality as Captain Obvious for many years. Unfortunately, no miracle happened, and reality turned out to be real.

Andrey Patrakov, founder of the RunAvia flight safety service

Patrakov explained that in the implementation of such programs, the initial goal should not be a declared one, but a real one.

It is necessary to realistically assess the state of industry in order to build realistic plans and realistically implement them. And when our plans are based on unrealistic assessments, then real work does not even begin. Because it was necessary to engage in the production of components for import substitution, but not for Russian aircraft, but for foreign ones, which are now leaving us. This reserve would be useful for the development of our own aircraft. This is a fundamental change in strategy. Rosaviatsia has already officially recognized that we will soon have more than 300 aircraft leaving. But they called the forecast pessimistic, but I would say it is optimistic. The rate of retirement may be faster, this is a statement of obvious facts.

Andrey Patrakov, founder of the RunAvia flight safety service

As a reminder, the CPGA was adopted in 2022, the programhas undergone several changes. In the current public version, it involves the production of up to 994 civil aircraft and 765 helicopters by 2030.