Regions of Russia are eagerly awaiting the Il-114-300 aircraft for local airlines. The certification of the Il-114, which is intended to replace the ancient An-24, is being postponed again. Simultaneously, other import-substituted models are being delayed, while old aircraft continue to fly in the regions, despite wear and tear and tragedies. The future of the industry looks extremely bleak.
According to Rosaviatsia, by 2030, 339 out of 1088 aircraft fit for flight will be decommissioned, and 200 out of 1088 helicopters. There is an acute problem with local airlines — 230 aircraft are outdated An-24, An-26, An-2, and Yak-40 aged 40–60 years.
Small cities, especially in the Far East and the North, cannot accommodate new SJ-100 "Superjets" and MC-21s. Therefore, old "Antonovs" continue to operate flights, despite accidents.
Il-114: A Dream That Keeps Being Postponed
The Il-114 could have become a symbol of the revival of the domestic aviation industry. The first flight of the aircraft was in 1990, and it could have replaced the outdated An-24, but certification was delayed until 1997.
The resumption of production after 2014 promised rapid progress, but 11 years have passed, and the aircraft has still not entered regular operation.
The certification tests of the Il-114-300, which began in 2020, have been ongoing for almost five years. The first deliveries are scheduled for 2027, when the Far Eastern airline "Aurora" will receive three aircraft.
"Ladoga", MC-21, and "Baikal" — Uncertainty for the Future
Other models to replace old aircraft, such as the TVRS-44 "Ladoga", MC-21, and "Baikal", are also stuck in the stage of endless tests and certifications. The exact dates of their entry into service are unknown, and industrial and technological delays only exacerbate the crisis.
Aviation experts state that it is unknown exactly how long the certification tests will last. But at this rate, new aircraft may never appear in the regions.
The Result — Aviation on the Verge of Stagnation
The Russian aviation industry is on the verge of stagnation. Without new aircraft, the regions are left with outdated machines, and each accident becomes a tragedy that could have been prevented.
If the situation does not change, domestic aviation risks remaining only on paper: new developments, certifications, and import-substituted models will never appear, and old aircraft will remain the only available transport. There is no time to wait in aviation — and the waiting period has already been greatly prolonged.
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