Amid tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, Russian oil companies have significantly increased diesel fuel exports. In the first two weeks of March alone, 1.4 million tons of diesel fuel were shipped from the Baltic port of Primorsk with 29 ship calls — this volume almost reached the figures for the entire February. At the same time, total diesel exports from Russian ports in February decreased by 30% compared to January and amounted to 2.3 million tons, with Brazil, Turkey, and African countries remaining the main destinations.
Experts surveyed do not see any threats to the domestic market: the growth of export revenues, in their opinion, will increase the profitability of oil refining and reduce price pressure within the country. Independent analyst Kirill Rodionov notes that in 2025, oilmen compensated for the loss of export revenue at the expense of domestic prices, but the current growth in global petroleum product quotations is capable of improving their financial situation without additional pressure on Russian consumers.
The Russian fuel market is traditionally surplus: if before 2022 the ratio of exports to domestic supplies was 50 to 50, now it has shifted to 40 to 60 in favor of the domestic market.
The cost of diesel fuel on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange has increased by 20% since the beginning of March, reaching 67,774 rubles per ton, prices for AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline have risen by more than 12%. Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner of NEFT Research, believes that this growth will be smoothed out by damper payments, and if they are insufficient, the government may promptly resume the export ban — such a measure, according to his forecast, is possible as early as April.
