The US Department of Commerce is preparing to impose an anti-dumping duty of 133% on imports of Russian palladium. The formal reason is a complaint from a local manufacturer, Sibanye-Stillwater, and trade unions, claiming that Russian metal is supplied at reduced prices due to government support, which causes American businesses to lose profits. In support of their claims, the applicants cite data: from 2022 to 2024, imports of palladium from Russia increased by more than a third, while domestic production in the United States decreased by 27%. However, experts doubt the validity of the claims, according to the Prime agency.
In general, we have been seeing the same logic for several years: economics is used as a continuation of politics. There is no need to look for any special economic benefit in what is happening; it is more of a signal than a well-thought-out long-term strategy.
Palladium is traded on the exchange, and its value is formed by the market. Nornickel, a key supplier, produces the metal in combination with copper, nickel, and platinum, which makes calculating the cost extremely difficult and speculative. Duties look more like a political signal than an economically justified measure.
Data from the US Geological Survey shows that in January–July 2025, Russia remained the largest supplier of palladium to America — 23.3 tons (43% of imports). South Africa ranked second with 17.75 tons (33%).
The US has nothing to replace the falling volumes with: the only palladium producer in the country, Sibanye-Stillwater, produces only about 10 tons of metal per year. Canadian volumes are even more modest. North American production as a whole is unprofitable due to the depletion of deposits and falling profitability. The only alternative major supplier is South Africa, but its reserves are also limited. As a result, the market is waiting for a shortage and further price increases, which will hit American automakers and industry.
Russia has already reoriented exports to friendly countries, primarily to China, where the automotive industry is actively developing. Thus, the restrictions primarily hit the United States itself, without achieving the stated goals. According to Nornickel, in 2024, all of North America accounted for 22% of global palladium consumption, about the same as Europe.
Palladium is a unique metal that is critical to many industries. About 80% of global consumption is for the production of catalytic converters, which reduce the toxicity of exhaust gases. The metal is also widely used in electronics (multilayer ceramic capacitors for smartphones and computers) and medicine (dental prostheses, pacemakers). Palladium is of particular importance to the defense industry: it is used to increase the corrosion resistance of titanium alloys, and is also widely used in radio electronics and the production of military equipment. In Soviet times, this metal was accumulated as a strategic reserve specifically for military needs.
