Rusal finished 2025 with a loss of $455 million — the most significant negative result since 2013. Revenue increased by 22.6% to $14.81 billion, but profit indicators fell: EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) decreased by 29.5% to $1.05 billion. Management attributes this dynamic to rising costs: raw materials and electricity became more expensive, and the strengthening of the ruble reduced ruble revenue from exports. The average premium to the price of aluminum on the London Metal Exchange more than halved.
The situation may change as early as this year. Analysts at Veles Capital and SberCIB note that if aluminum prices remain above $3,300 per ton, Rusal's financial situation will begin to improve. LME quotes in March 2026 updated their highs since 2022, reaching $3,440 per ton. The reason was a shortage of supplies from the Persian Gulf countries amid the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. If the tension drags on, prices could break through the $4,000 mark. An additional support factor will be the expected weakening of the ruble to 90 rubles per dollar by the end of the year.
The debt burden remains a weak point for the company. In 2025, expenses for servicing loans and bonds increased by 71.3% to $697 million. In the second half of the year, interest paid at $383 million exceeded operating profit. Experts warn that if the price of aluminum falls below $2,700 per ton, operating income will not be enough to cover debt obligations. Net profit in 2026 may suffer precisely because of the currency structure of the debt, even with the growth of revenue and EBITDA.
Rusal is actively working on raw material independence. After losing access to Ukrainian and Australian assets in 2022, the company acquired shares in Chinese and Indian alumina production. By 2027, these capacities should provide the production of about 7.7 million tons of raw materials, which will cover the needs under the current plan to reduce aluminum production to 3.7 million tons. However, when operating at full capacity of 4.2 million tons, the alumina deficit will reach 8.8 million tons, which may push the company to new deals to purchase assets.
Demand for aluminum in the world is growing at a moderate pace: in 2025, consumption increased by 2.3% to 74.3 million tons. The main driver is China, where demand grew by 3.4% thanks to government support, electric vehicle production, and the development of solar energy. For Rusal, China has become a key market with revenue of $5.17 billion. Russia took second place with a figure of $3.85 billion, South Korea — third with $1.19 billion.
Rusal remains the largest aluminum producer outside of China, controlling 5.3% of the world's metal production. The controlling stake in the company belongs to the En+ group, where Oleg Deripaska's share is 35% of the voting shares. Further dynamics of quotations and the ruble exchange rate will be the determining factors for the restoration of the company's profitability in 2026.
