A group of researchers, including specialists from the Ural Federal University (UrFU) and the University of Helsinki, has presented a new method for calculating the trajectory and parameters of meteoroids. The developed algorithm allows determining with high accuracy whether a space body will fall on the planet's surface, even with minimal initial data.
The approach is based on a combination of a physical model of atmospheric entry (alpha-beta model) and metaheuristic optimization. Previously, detailed data on the entire trajectory of the bolide's flight were required for such calculations. Now, only two observation points are sufficient — the moment of entry into the atmosphere and the point of disappearance.
The method allows calculating:
- ablation coefficient (mass loss during atmospheric passage),
- ballistic coefficient (ratio of mass to aerodynamic drag),
- penetration depth and final mass of the meteoroid.
The scientists analyzed 824 cases of bolide observations recorded by the European Network of Observations (EN). It turned out that the method is particularly effective for meteoroids of asteroid origin. For fragile and high-speed bodies (e.g., cometary ice), the accuracy is lower due to their rapid destruction.
It is worth noting that by abandoning the traditional P(E) classification, the calculation accuracy increased from 44% to 90%, which calls into question the universality of this P(E) approach.
Even with a minimum of data — only the initial and final points — we can reconstruct the most important characteristics of bolides: speed, mass, braking depth, and final mass. In other words, it is now possible to predict with sufficient accuracy whether a meteoroid will reach the Earth's surface and with what mass.
The algorithm is already available to the scientific community. Its further development will improve the modeling of complex meteoroid destruction scenarios. The main advantage is the ability to reanalyze thousands of historical observations previously considered insufficient for accurate conclusions.
The alpha-beta model is a simplified way to calculate the movement of a space object (e.g., a meteorite or a re-entry vehicle) when entering a planet's atmosphere. When an object flies in the atmosphere, two key forces act on it:
- Gravity (pulls down, towards the planet).
- Aerodynamic drag (slows down and heats the object due to friction with the air).
The alpha-beta model replaces complex equations of motion with two simple parameters:
- α (alpha) — responsible for braking (how quickly the vehicle loses speed due to air resistance).
- β (beta) — responsible for heating (how much the object heats up during braking).
Instead of solving complex differential equations, engineers can use the α and β model to quickly estimate the altitude where strong braking will begin, the heating of the object, and calculate an approximate landing point.
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