Masses of plasma clouds ejected by the Sun on March 21 reached Earth a day late. The initial forecast of a magnetic storm did not materialize. The data appeared on the website of the Laboratory of Solar Astronomy of IKI and ISZF.
The calculations of plasma movement turned out to be inaccurate. Instead of the expected 32 hours, the transit took 56 hours. This led to an error of 75%.
The reasons for this miss are related to shortcomings in forecasting models. The CONE model overestimated the initial ejection speed, while ENLIL underestimated the influence of the high density of the interplanetary medium. In the last 24 hours, the gas between Earth and the Sun has been about ten times denser than normal.
The latter factor, apparently, became the main one, since the solar cloud came to Earth almost completely losing its speed due to braking on the interplanetary medium - on the solar wind speed graphs, it is even difficult to find a jump at the moment the front hit the Earth.
Due to these changes, the initial forecast of a G3-level geomagnetic storm is no longer relevant. Now, experts expect only weak G1-level disturbances, which may appear on March 24.
Earlier www1.ru reported that a magnetic storm had again covered the Earth.
Read materials on the topic:
Four powerful class M flares recorded on the Sun: there are risks of magnetic storms
