The Sun is entering an extreme phase of its 11-year cycle, and scientists warn that its activity will increase significantly in the coming years. An increase in magnetic storms on Earth and possible disruptions in the operation of satellites are expected. During this phase, large coronal holes may appear on the Sun, as happened in 2022, when one of them affected the atmosphere of Mars. Despite all the potential threats, there is also a positive side to this process: the auroras will become brighter and more frequent.
The period of solar maximum has begun, in which the number of sunspots increases, as well as the activity of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which release huge flows of charged particles. These events cause geomagnetic storms that can disrupt navigation systems, communications, and power systems on Earth. The peak of the solar cycle usually ends with a transition to a solar minimum, when solar activity decreases, and a new cycle begins.
According to experts, solar activity may reach its peak not during the solar maximum itself, but later — in the so-called "battle zone," which occurs after the maximum. This term was introduced by Lynker Space, a company that forecasts space weather, and describes the phase when geomagnetic activity increases significantly after the solar maximum, including due to the formation of large coronal holes. This phase may continue until 2028, and particularly strong geomagnetic storms are possible at this time. Satellites in Earth orbit will face new challenges, as their number has increased significantly compared to previous cycles.
In recent years, solar activity has increased, indicating an earlier onset of the solar maximum and its greater intensity than previously thought. The solar maximum is expected to last for at least another year and will be accompanied by increased flare activity. For example, in October 2024, the Sun experienced an X9 flare, which was the strongest flare in the last seven years.
A recent study by Lynker Space indicates an emerging "battle zone" phase, which is predicted to begin in a year or two. This period may lead to a 50% increase in geomagnetic activity and last until 2028. During this time, the probability of large, destructive geomagnetic storms will increase significantly.
The "battle zone" is associated with the 22-year Hale cycle — a long cycle during which the Sun's magnetic field changes direction. This process creates magnetic bands at the poles of the Sun, which then migrate to the equator. The interaction of these bands plays a key role in the formation of solar activity. When the magnetic bands begin to overlap, this reduces the magnetic imbalance, which makes it difficult to form sunspots and, ultimately, reduces solar activity as it approaches the solar minimum.
Previously, scientists relied on the number of sunspots in their forecasts, but recent studies have shown that the magnetic bands of the Hale cycle are much more important than previously thought. This discovery made it possible to accurately predict the time of the solar maximum, which was previously missed by other researchers.
Thus, although solar activity has peaked as predicted, the real threat is likely to come in the "battle zone," where geomagnetic storms will be more frequent and powerful, creating additional challenges for satellites and the technologies that use them.
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