The new passenger car market showed a decline in November, which, in general, did not come as a surprise to industry analysts. This drop of 28.8% compared to the previous month has attracted the attention of experts, who attribute it to a number of factors, including high CBR rates and limited demand accumulated in previous months.
Sergey Udalov from Autostat, in an interview with Kommersant, explained that the decrease in demand in November was caused, among other things, by the redirection of consumer activity in September and October, when citizens sought to purchase cars before the increase in the recycling fee. "People were eager to buy cars at lower prices, which led to a decrease in sales in November," he noted. Also, in his opinion, the increase in the key rate also had a cooling effect on consumer activity.
No less important role in the fall in sales was played by the effect of a high base — record sales in October could create the illusion of an even greater decline in the following month. "October was an exceptional month, with record results in the last 3.5 years. This influence also affected November," the expert added.
Andrey Olkhovsky, CEO of Avtodom Group, said that the most important factors leading to the decline were restrictions on car loans and rising rates. He noted that the first week of November was particularly difficult, with sales falling by 60% compared to the same period in October. Olkhovsky emphasized that this is directly related to the lack of credit offers and the increase in the key rate.
Nikolai Ivanov, Director of the New Cars Department at Rolf, is confident that December will bring a revival to the market. "December is traditionally a good month for the car market, and we expect sales to grow by 5-10% compared to November," he predicts. Ivanov also emphasizes that December will be the last month when buyers can buy a car at old prices before the recycling fee increases from January 1.
An additional factor influencing sales growth will be the activity of importers, who, according to experts, will offer additional discounts to stimulate demand at the end of the year. Andrey Terlyukevich from Avtospetscenter confirms that the increase in car prices caused by the indexation of the recycling fee and the devaluation of the ruble will also push customers to buy in December.
Renat Tyukteev, Deputy General Director for Sales of New Cars at AG Avilon, predicts an increase in the corporate segment in December, which may also play a role in increasing sales volume. "We expect that the market as a whole will close at the level of 150-160 thousand cars," he says.
Despite the decline in November, experts are optimistic about December, expecting sales growth due to increased buyer activity, discount offers, and increased activity of corporate clients.
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