The draft federal budget for 2027–2028 provides for a reduction in funding for the preferential car loan program to 7 billion rubles per year, compared to 20 billion rubles provided for in the current plan. At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Trade announced that the program's limits for 2026 have been exhausted — over 123 thousand cars were sold under preferential car loans in nine months.
The preferential car loan mechanism involves the buyer taking out a targeted loan from a participating bank, the seller providing a discount on the car, and the state subsequently compensating for it within the program.
In 2026, about 20 billion rubles were allocated for preferential car loans. In 2025, 34 billion rubles were directed to this program. Now, the draft budget for 2027 and 2028 allocates only 7 billion rubles annually. At the same time, funding is planned to increase to 24.7 billion rubles for 2029.
The program applies to new cars of Russian production. In 2026, the benefit is available, in particular, to medical workers, employees of educational organizations, SVO participants and their family members, citizens with disabilities, as well as families with children in the Far East.
The change in funding is especially noticeable against the backdrop of the current volume of car lending. According to Frank RG, in August, banks issued car loans for 183.7 billion rubles. In a month, the average size of such a loan increased to 1.58 million rubles.
From January to August, Russians took out about 796 thousand car loans for a total amount of 1.24 trillion rubles. At the same time, the average loan term has already reached 72 months, or six years.
Preferential loans occupy a significant part of this market. According to Kommersant's estimates, their share is at least 10% of the entire car lending market, and among new cars — about 15–20%.
According to Yuri Belikov, Managing Director of Expert RA, some buyers may postpone car purchases until the next budget cycle. In addition, a decrease in the number of relatively cheap deals can increase the average loan amount. At the same time, it will be difficult to increase the loan term to maintain an acceptable monthly payment — the average term is already about six years.
There is another scenario. The average full cost of a car loan in August was 17.2% per annum, compared to almost 19% at the beginning of the year. For new cars, the figure was lower — 14.6%, and for used cars — 22.6%. If the cost of market loans continues to decline, some buyers may switch to regular bank programs.
Mikhail Doronkin, Managing Director of NKR, also admits the possibility of demand shifting to market programs. According to his assessment, a further reduction in the key rate could contribute to this. In addition, individual Chinese manufacturers, including Geely, Chery, and Changan, offer their own programs with low rates, although in some cases they require an initial payment of 70–80%.
