The Russian car market may face serious challenges. According to forecasts by the Association of European Businesses (AEB) Automobile Manufacturers Committee, new car sales may decrease by 15% in 2025 compared to the previous year.
According to the AEB, 1.47 million new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles were sold in Russia in 2024, which is 56% more than in 2023. Considering alternative supply channels, the total market volume amounted to 1.65 million units, representing a 46% increase. However, for comparison, sales in 2016 amounted to 1.43 million cars.
Alexey Kalitsev, Chairman of the Automobile Manufacturers Committee, noted that there was a sharp increase in car sales at the beginning of 2024. But at the end of the year, there was a slowdown. The expert attributes this to pent-up demand and buyers' reaction to possible import cuts, as well as an increase in the financial burden. At the same time, the share of local production did not increase, but official imports, on the contrary, increased.
According to the expert, if current conditions persist in 2025, the market may shrink to 1.4 million cars. This will require active development of local production and support from the state.
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