Russian scientists from the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) have refuted a study by their colleagues from the Swedish University of Gothenburg about the possible imminent complete disappearance of Arctic ice. European scientists believe that there is a risk that the ice cover in the Arctic will completely melt by 2030, or even earlier, in 2027, due to climate change.
However, as explained to RIA "Novosti" in the AARI press service, there is no need to worry.
According to scientists at the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, the disappearance of ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, expected by the middle of the century, will not occur. Ice conditions in the Arctic seas will be approximately the same as they are now. Even in the "easiest" year, the waters of the Arctic seas will be free of ice only from August to October. The period of 2030–2050 will see a phase of decreasing air temperature during the 70-year oscillation, and ice conditions in the Arctic seas will be close to modern ones.
Scientists explain that minor changes in the ice cover in the Arctic were already recorded in the 1990s. Sharp changes compared to 1979, when regular satellite observations of this part of the Earth began, started to be recorded in the early 2000s. At the same time, "in recent years, the summer ice area, although it varies from year to year, generally remains at a new average level, which is approximately 20-25% less than observed in 1979-2000".
But in recent years, the ice coverage of the Northern Sea Route in September has been increasing. Thus, in 2021, the ice area during this period increased by almost 200 thousand square kilometers, and in 2023 it increased to 316 thousand square kilometers, although the temperature in the Russian Arctic that year was 1.12 degrees above normal.
Earlier in the fall, Russia refuted NATO's accusations of concealing climate data about the Arctic. European scientists were concerned that the lack of complete data on the Arctic climate due to sanctions prevents them from jointly predicting global warming with their Russian colleagues. Maria Zakharova, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, then noted that NATO's interest in Russian climate data in the Arctic is "strange and unnatural". She reminded that Russia continues to work as part of the Arctic Council and its working groups, but the activities of the Arctic Council "remain limited, and it is premature to talk about the full normalization of its work".
Later in November, students of the interregional project group "RISKSAT" under the auspices of MAI discovered the disappearance of Mesyatsev Island in the Franz Josef Land archipelago on satellite images. Mesyatsev Island was formed from the peninsula of the same name as a result of the melting of the glacier before 1995.
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