The decline in demand for steel in Russia may begin to recover after 2025 due to a decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank and the implementation of infrastructure projects. This forecast was given by analysts at "Yakov and Partners." Here are the details.
According to their forecast, steel consumption in the country without structural changes may increase by 1.2–2.7 million tons by 2030. Opportunities for growth in export sales will be limited, so metallurgists should focus on the domestic market.
The largest increase in consumption, according to analysts, can be provided by the production of railway cars. It may increase to 0.8–0.9 million tons, provided that trade volumes with Asian countries are maintained and exports via the Eastern Polygon increase.
However, Rollingstock Agency predicts that next year, car production will decrease compared to 2024. Production growth until 2030 is possible, analysts predict, in the event of favorable market conditions.
Additional demand for steel may arise due to projects for the development of railways (0.5 million tons), the pipe industry (0.3–0.5 million tons), and the automotive industry (0.2 million tons). In construction, which previously drove steel consumption growth, the cancellation of preferential mortgages and the increase in the key rate negatively affect demand.
According to analysts, in this sector by 2030, it is possible to return to the consumption levels of 2023 by increasing the metal intensity of buildings and reducing the key rate.
However, "Yakov and Partners" warn that many projects that can ensure the growth of demand for steel will not be systemic, and a decrease in consumption may begin in 2032. The forecast of demand volume may also be affected by the abandonment of infrastructure projects and the maintenance of a high key rate.
Today, the domestic steel market is experiencing a cooling of demand. According to analysts at Severstal, in the third quarter, consumption decreased by 9.2% compared to last year, amounting to 10.8 million tons, which is due to a decrease in demand in construction and the energy sector. At the same time, mechanical engineering showed growth of 2.3%. In the fourth quarter, a decrease in demand of 11% is expected compared to last year, and for the year as a whole — by 5.7%, to 43.7 million tons.
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