Scientists from the Solar Astronomy Laboratory of the Institute for Space Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences spoke about what is happening with space weather now. According to them, the Sun is reaching its maximum activity, but instead of a series of large flares of the maximum X-class, many smaller M-class flares occur. At the same time, the energy emissions they give in total are no worse.
This scenario, in general, is favorable for the Earth, since the conditional 10 M-flares are certainly better for the planet than 1-2 X explosions, even if they are equivalent in energy. The reason for this type of activity is, of course, the very complex structure of active centers (in the same area 3883 there are now about 30 spots), which does not yet allow large stable flare configurations to form. When the M-threshold is reached, a breakdown occurs, and energy, accordingly, is released at early stages, without having time to accumulate to large values. At the same time, the evolution of all active centers on the Sun always follows the path of simplifying the structure, which may naturally lead to a transition to less favorable flare modes. In any case, the situation is stable at the moment. In total, over the past two days, the Sun has produced a total energy of 4-5 X-level flares, but in fact, only one such flare was able to materialize, and the rest was wasted.
The overall level of flare activity by November 8 and 9 decreased somewhat, but, according to scientists, this can be interpreted in two directions. In the first case, this is good for the Earth: the energy temporarily ends. In the second, on the contrary, it is accumulating for large explosions and one should prepare for maximum flares. But now"according to some indications, there is hope for the first scenario".
Earlier, a powerful flare of the highest class X occurred on the Sun on November 6. The duration of the flare was 32 minutes.
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