Russian airlines will initially purchase domestic airliners not to replace old Boeing and Airbus aircraft, but to expand their own fleet. This scenario for civil aviation was predicted by Roman Gusarov, editor-in-chief of Avia.ru.
According to his estimates, Russian carriers will need about 700 mainline aircraft in the next 10–15 years. At the same time, a significant part of the current Western fleet will still be able to continue operations.
Therefore, carriers will initially purchase domestic aircraft not to replace old airliners, but to expand their fleet.
Gusarov noted that the age of the Boeing and Airbus aircraft currently owned by airlines allows them to fly for several more years. Therefore, a massive simultaneous write-off of Western airliners is not to be expected.
If we take catalog prices, then 10 new aircraft to replace those that are retired in a year – that's a billion dollars with all discounts. Accordingly, 700 aircraft – that's 70 billion. And taking into account spare parts and maintenance, the amount can safely be multiplied by two.
Domestic aircraft can be added to the existing fleet, gradually increasing it by approximately 5–10% per year. At the same time, the need for approximately 5% growth nationwide corresponds to the production of about 36 MC-21s annually.
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