Industrial production in Russia grew by only 0.4% in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period last year, according to Rosstat data. For comparison: in the first six months of 2025, growth was 1.4%. The June figure (0.6% year-on-year) only confirms the slowdown – the sector stabilized after the May decline but did not return to confident growth.

The dynamics across industries are extremely uneven. The main driver is manufacturing, which added 0.7%. However, growth is provided by a narrow group of industries: the production of vehicles and equipment (mainly defense) grew by 32.6%, pharmaceuticals by 13.9%, and finished metal products by 8.8%. At the same time, metallurgy fell by 9.3%, paper production by 8.9%, and coke and petroleum products by 7.7%.

Civilian sectors are between stagnation and recession due to falling consumer demand and the strengthening ruble, which makes imports more attractive. The extractive sector contracted by 0.5%, and water supply and sanitation by 2.5%. The oil complex is experiencing additional pressure due to attacks on infrastructure and unscheduled repairs – in June, the production of coke and petroleum products collapsed by 21.7% year-on-year.