After the departure of Western automakers from Russia, the new car market is experiencing an unstable recovery. According to the assessment of independent auto expert Oleg Moseev, in 2025, sales may reach 1.25 million cars — 15% less than a year earlier. The main reason for the decline remains the high key rate, due to which Russians are postponing large purchases.
From November 1, it is planned to change the procedure for calculating the recycling fee — now it will depend on the engine power. Moseev believes that such measures harm the market, causing short-term excitement and creating an imbalance. The introduction of new rules may lead to price increases and capital outflow if automakers are not confident in the stability of regulation.
Chinese brands, which occupy almost 60% of the Russian market, are experiencing difficulties with localization and after-sales service. According to the expert, Chinese companies "conduct business in Russia in the same way as at home", without taking into account local specifics. Because of this, repair and spare parts delivery times are often delayed for months.
The expert predicts that in 2026 the market will not grow, but, on the contrary, may stall due to the increase in VAT and the increase in the recycling fee.
