The new passenger car market will not be able to return to the sales level of 1.57 million cars, which was recorded in 2024, until the end of 2026. This opinion was expressed by analysts at "Technology of Trust." According to their forecasts, even if the economic situation improves and incomes grow, car sales in 2025 are expected to decline.
Analysts identify three scenarios for the development of events: basic, pessimistic and stabilizing. All of them suggest a reduction in sales in the coming year. In the basic scenario, with moderate growth in income and prices, sales may fall by 7% — to 1.46 million cars. The pessimistic scenario predicts a decrease to 1.27 million cars amid a weak ruble and a high key rate. The optimistic forecast, with a decrease in the rate and an increase in available models, suggests that by 2026 sales will reach 1.64 million, and by 2030 — 2.25 million cars.
Recent data show that from June 9 to 15, Russians purchased 15,400 new passenger cars, which is 34% less than in the previous week, and almost 40% below last year's level. The sales leader is still the Lada brand, but Chinese cars are taking up more and more space in the top 10 models.
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