The import substitution program in civil aviation has encountered a serious failure in the light aviation segment. In the summer of 2025, the presidential representative in the Far Eastern Federal District, Yuri Trutnev, stated that the development of the LMS-901 "Baikal" had reached a dead end and the aircraft would not appear in the foreseeable future. Although the developers promptly refuted this statement, the real prospects of the project have changed: certification has been postponed to 2027 under a state contract for revision under the VK-800SM engine.
Meanwhile, despite the difficulties, the industry is demonstrating increasing production volumes. As of December 2025, three "Baikals" are being assembled, although without a clear commercial order.
The Comprehensive Program for the Development of the Aviation Industry until 2031 envisages the production of 994 aircraft, including promising but still unrealized projects — the twin-engine "Ladoga" and "Osvey" and 14 Il-96-300 airliners. However, the gap between the program's ambitions and real capabilities is already evident.
Particular tension is predicted in regional aviation. Rosaviatsiya expects 339 aircraft to be retired by 2030 — 230 domestic (including An-24, An-26, Yak-40 and An-2) and 109 foreign. Without the timely appearance of a replacement, primarily Il-114-300 and "Baikal", regions may face a shortage of air transport.
At the same time, the industry notes that, despite the difficulties with components, personnel and deadlines, the task of building a completely domestic aircraft fleet is seen as a priority. Enterprises are "working hard", and funding, albeit with interruptions, is provided.
No less important factor affecting the timing is the formation of a domestic certification base. After the departure of Western regulators and manufacturers, Rosaviatsiya had to not only rebuild the system for confirming airworthiness, but also create from scratch methods for evaluating completely Russian components — from avionics to hydraulics. This slows down not so much flight tests as the process of documenting compliance with standards, especially in the case of deep import substitution, where each unit requires separate safety confirmation.
Earlier, www1.ru reported that MS-21, SJ-100 and Il-114 will not be released on schedule.