About 1.1 billion tons will be loaded on the Russian Railways network by the end of 2026, according to NEFT Research's assessment, reviewed by Vedomosti. This is 1% lower than the actual figure for 2025, when loading amounted to almost 1.12 billion tons. The expected result will mark the fifth consecutive year of decline.

Despite a partial recovery in the second quarter, loading remains below last year's level for the first half of the year. The main pressure on the indicator is still exerted by the reduction in domestic transportation of construction cargo and petroleum products, as well as unstable dynamics of raw material exports. For most of the volume-forming nomenclature, the dynamics are still in the negative zone.

The decline in construction cargo and petroleum products is directly linked to the cooling of domestic demand and repairs at oil refineries. If export supplies do not recover in the second half of the year, and construction continues to slow down, loading risks falling below forecast values. For wagon fleet operators, this means further pressure on lease rates and profitability.

In the first half of 2026, the average weight of a freight train on the Russian Railways network reached 4098 tons, which is 1% more than in the same period last year.