The Rybinsk plant "ODK-Saturn" is currently capable of producing about 30 PD-8 engines per year, as stated by the head of Rosaviatsiya, Dmitry Yadrov. At first glance, the figure seems impressive, but if we translate it into the needs of the entire Superjet fleet, the scale of the task becomes much clearer.
"Pervy Tekhnichesky" armed itself with a calculator to clearly show that the current modest capabilities do not allow replacing SaM146 with PD-8 even in the distant future.
How many engines will be needed?
Everyone remembers that the first Superjet-100s were equipped with French-Russian SaM146 engines. If the power plants on all approximately 140 such aircraft are replaced, at least 280 PD-8 engines will be needed – two for each liner.
And this is only for the re-motorization of already built aircraft. In addition, new PD-8s are necessary for the production of fully import-substituted SJ-100s.
Let's not forget to create a reserve of spare engines, without which normal operation of the aircraft fleet is impossible.
What should be the production rate?
At the current rate of 30 engines annually, the production of only 280 engines for re-motorization would take about 10 years. And this is on the condition that all manufactured PD-8s would be sent exclusively for the re-equipment of existing aircraft.
In practice, such a scenario is impossible. Some engines will be needed for new SJ-100s, some for testing, training, and forming an exchange fund. Therefore, the actual timelines will be even longer if production is not increased.
Not smooth on paper either
That is why today's 30 engines per year can be considered only a starting stage. For mass replacement of SaM146 and simultaneous production of new aircraft, ODK-Saturn will inevitably have to increase production volumes.
The speed at which the plant can reach a higher pace will determine not only the fate of the first Superjets but also the speed of renewal of the entire Russian regional aviation fleet.