The Bank of Russia does not intend to ignore the rise in fuel prices and its impact on inflation expectations. Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexey Zabotkin stated that the regulator will closely monitor prices in July and subsequent months, but expects that government measures will help stabilize the market.

According to him, June inflation was significantly accelerated by one-off factors. Additional pressure was created by a rebound in prices for fruits and vegetables and a sharp increase in fuel costs. At the same time, not only the cost of gasoline and diesel is important for the economy, but also their availability: disruptions increase business costs and can gradually affect other goods.

Fuel shortages have been observed since the end of May. To support the domestic market, authorities completely banned the export of diesel and marine fuel, as well as gas oils, until July 31. In the first ten days of July, median prices for AI-92 increased by 20%, and for AI-95 by 24%, according to "Check Index".

Despite the jump, the Central Bank expects to return inflation to the 4% target by 2027 with a well-calibrated monetary policy. Businesses, meanwhile, hope that the regulator will not respond to the fuel price increase with a new hike in the key rate.