Boeing and Airbus are a pain in the neck: their repair is slowing down the development of the aviation industry

VEB.RF study: it will not be possible to achieve 50% import substitution of aircraft by 2030

In November 2025, the Russian government approved a development plan according to which, by 2030, 50% of the country's aircraft should be of its own production. However, this figure may be only 30%, according to a letter to the Ministry of Economic Development from Andrei Klepach, chief economist at VEB.RF.

According to estimates by the Institute for Research and Expertise, the share of domestic aircraft largely depends on the rate of disposal of foreign aircraft. Another reason was the delay in putting into operation aircraft of Russian aircraft manufacturing enterprises.

Due to the higher observed ability to repair foreign aircraft than previously expected, the share of domestic aircraft may be lower than expected, especially given the shift in production plans.
VEB.RF study

Andrey Patrakov, founder of the flight safety and certification service RunAvia, stated to Pervy Technichesky that the KPGA plans are impossible to implement.

He explained that the situation is natural - over the past 20 years, Russia has destroyed supply chains, critically reduced the volume of its own production of components and lost its own competencies.

Yuri Zakharchenko, executive director of the RKK-Nauka trade union, added that the domestic aircraft market was collapsed by the transition to Boeing and Airbus liners.

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