Estimates for the future Indian market for the Russian SJ-100 diverged threefold: India's HAL suggested demand for up to 300 aircraft, while OAK head Vadim Badeha estimated the need at approximately 100 aircraft over a ten-year horizon. The difference emerged literally within one day amid negotiations on the localization of the Russian regional airliner in India.
Together with the Indian side, we estimate about 100 Superjets and more than 100 Il aircraft.
The Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade cited HAL for the estimate of 300 aircraft after a meeting between the head of the department, Anton Alikhanov, and India's Minister of Civil Aviation, Rammohan Naidu. The discussion specifically concerned the potential demand of Indian airlines for the SJ-100. Later, Badeha reported that OAK, together with the Indian side, foresees about 100 Superjets and more than 100 Il-114-300s over a ten-year perspective.
However, these two estimates cannot be considered full independent forecasts of the same indicator. HAL speaks only about the possible demand for the SJ-100, while OAK includes two aircraft in its calculation and specifies a concrete 10-year horizon. But even considering the difference in methodology, a significant discrepancy remains: the potential of the Indian market for a single SJ-100, according to HAL's estimate, is almost three times higher than the estimate publicly voiced by the head of OAK.
The Il-114-300 adds a separate scale to the market. OAK has already signed agreements with Indian companies for 85 such aircraft: 50 aircraft are expected to be delivered to Pinnacle Air, and another 35 to Sleek Aviation, for which a training center with a full-flight simulator is also planned to be created.