The consulting company ATK+ has developed three scenarios for the development of the Russian air transport industry until 2030.
The base scenario assumes that the passenger traffic of Russian air carriers will reach about 120 million people, approaching the record level of the pre-pandemic 2019 (128.1 million passengers). This growth is possible if new Russian equipment is regularly supplied to airlines to replace retiring foreign aircraft. However, the introduction of the Moscow – St. Petersburg high-speed railway will restrain the growth of passenger traffic, taking away 2 to 3 million passengers annually.
The positive scenario describes the lifting of restrictions on international transportation with a number of Western countries, the accelerated commissioning of Russian aviation equipment and the easing of sanctions. In this case, the industry will be able to transport from 140 to 150 million people.
The negative scenario implies that there will be "unforeseen technical, logistical and certification problems" with the launch of new Russian aircraft. Tightening restrictions on the supply of spare parts for existing machines will stop growth. Then, according to the forecast of ATK+, the volume of traffic will remain at the level of 2023–2024 (105–110 million people).
