According to the results of June 2025, car stocks in Russia have decreased and reached 430-450 thousand units. Nikolay Ivanov, Director of the New Cars Department at Rolf, told Avtostat about this. He noted that stocks differ from brand to brand, but the overall situation remains alarming: at the current sales rate, they will only last for five months.
According to Andrey Terlyukevich, General Director of AvtoSpetsCenter Group, dealers had about 400–450 thousand cars left at the beginning of July. This is approximately 4–5 months of sales at the current sales rate of 100 thousand cars per month.
Roman Slutsky, General Director of Alarm-Motors Group, estimates current car stocks at approximately 500 thousand units. It is important to note that simultaneously with the sale of 2024 model year car stocks, the market is being replenished with new cars produced in Russia.
Yes, production volumes have been reduced to a minimum, but factories continue to operate and replenish the market. Nevertheless, in my opinion, for a number of best-selling models in the mass segment, we may begin to see the first signs of a shortage as early as the third quarter.
This will be affected by the traditional summer holidays at car factories. By the end of September, there will be about 350 thousand new cars on the market, he suggested.
Hence the question: will any of the importers risk placing any significant volumes of orders for cars and vehicle kits on the Russian market in August in order to make a breakthrough in sales at the end of the year? Personally, I doubt it, and if I am right, then by the end of the year stocks will amount to no more than 250 thousand units.
In the first half of 2025, the volume of government purchases of new and used Russian cars fell by 15%. Now it amounts to 20.7 billion rubles. This happened due to the need to optimize expenses in a difficult economic situation.
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