Aviation economics expert and president of the consulting company MelonAero, Oleg Evdokimov, called the precise match between the aircraft's capacity and the actual demand the main condition for the profitability of regional routes. Using the example of the Icelandic airline Play, he showed how an error in the selection of the fleet size leads to financial losses, and explained why the Russian SSJ-100 aircraft is capable of correcting this situation.
According to the specialist, the Icelandic carrier's bet on large narrow-body aircraft for short European flights turned out to be unjustified: the carrying capacity exceeded demand, the load fell, and the cost of transporting one passenger increased. Evdokimov noted that the use of jet aircraft with a capacity of ninety to one hundred seats, such as the SJ-100, would make it possible to keep the seat occupancy at the level of ninety-five percent and significantly improve the economics of these destinations.
In 2019, I tried to draw Play's attention to this opportunity, but to no avail. At that time, the Russian authorities allocated $100 million to promote Superjet in foreign markets, so the purchase would have been subsidized. At the same time, Airbus confirmed that it was possible to order narrow-body A321 XLRs — this was a great opportunity to build a strong model with a combined fleet of Superjet and A321 XLR.
According to Evdokimov, the rejection of this opportunity was one of the reasons for the carrier's subsequent difficulties.
Evdokimov also added that aircraft such as the SJ-100 are most effective on routes lasting from forty minutes to two hours with moderate passenger traffic. This format allows you to plan the frequency of flights according to real demand, and not to adjust passengers to the excessive capacity of a large aircraft. In Russian conditions, this model is successfully used by the airline Azimut, maintaining a stable load on the interregional destinations of the south and center of the country.
An additional advantage of high occupancy, the expert said, is a reduction in the carbon footprint per passenger, which reduces the impact of environmental fees in Europe. Evdokimov summarized that the problems of small airlines are not related to market conditions, but to an incorrect fleet formation strategy. The configuration of the modern version of the SJ-100 with Russian units makes this aircraft attractive to operators from countries with limited access to Western technology.