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"70-80 Tu-154 per year is not a benchmark": Aviation expert explained why it's harder to ramp up MS-21 production

Yaroslav Galyushkin: To produce dozens of airliners per year, it's not enough to assemble a few fully import-substituted aircraft

Aviation equipment test engineer Yaroslav Galyushkin explained why the current pace of MS-21 series production cannot be directly compared with Soviet Tu-154 output. Soviet industry reached the production of 70-80 such aircraft per year in approximately ten years, while the modern program simultaneously addresses the tasks of certification and import substitution of dozens of aviation systems.

MS-21 Image source: OAK // скриншот из видео пресс-службы ОАК

Currently, Yakovlev is only increasing MS-21 production after transitioning to fully domestic components. The plan envisages a gradual increase in production to several dozen aircraft per year, and it is this sharp transition from the first serial machines to mass production that Galyushkin suggests comparing with Soviet experience.

Yes, Soviet aircraft industry at its peak produced 70-80 Tu-154s per year, but it took them ten years to get there. The MS-21 aims to reach thirty per year within two to three years after the start of series production, even though certification is not yet complete.
Yaroslav Galyushkin, aviation equipment test engineer

According to the engineer, the difference is not only in the aircraft itself but also in production cooperation. By the time the Tu-154 reached high production rates, the Soviet aviation industry already had a well-established network of enterprises and suppliers, whereas for the import-substituted MS-21, this chain has to be rebuilt and scaled up from scratch.

At the certification level, the import substitution program has already progressed: domestic composites have been introduced into the aircraft design, and avionics, cockpit controls, and control system actuators were previously replaced.

However, a certified component and a serial component are not the same, the expert believes. After testing individual systems, suppliers still need to confirm their ability to consistently produce the required quantity with consistent quality and maintain the specified delivery rhythm.

Galyushkin considers the transition from a few test and first serial machines to stable mass production to be the main production challenge for the MS-21.

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