The Russian wide-body Il-96-400M cannot yet be fairly compared to Boeing and Airbus in terms of operating costs, as the aircraft is not yet used by airlines in commercial transportation. But the situation may change as the Western fleet ages, aviation expert Oleg Panteleev told "Pervy Tekhnichesky".
Currently, Russian carriers continue to use serviceable foreign wide-body aircraft. As long as it is possible to maintain their airworthiness and obtain necessary components, twin-engine Boeing and Airbus maintain the familiar operating economics for airlines.
A problem may arise as this fleet ages and further restrictions on maintenance and component supply are tightened. In such a case, the Il-96-400M will have to be compared not with a new Boeing or Airbus, but with a specific foreign aircraft whose operation is becoming more expensive.
Sooner or later, a moment will come when the "Il" becomes more attractive not because it can be ordered and foreign cars cannot.
At the same time, the Il-96-400M still has a significant drawback: the aircraft is equipped with four PS-90A1 engines. OAK specifies four power plants of this type for the airliner, a maximum takeoff weight of 270 tons, and a range of 8100 km with a commercial load of 40 tons.
Modern wide-body Boeing and Airbus aircraft commonly use a twin-engine scheme. For example, the Boeing 777-300ER uses two GE90 engines and is designed for a range of up to 13,890 km.
Therefore, an airline's transition to the Il-96-400M does not automatically mean reduced costs. Four engines require more power plants and corresponding maintenance, and the real operating cost of the Russian aircraft can only be assessed after sufficient commercial flight statistics become available.
However, with state support for Russian carriers and a reduction in kerosene prices, the gap in fuel efficiency may cease to determine the entire economics of a flight, Panteleev added.
So, the Il-96 in its current form should not be completely written off. But if measures are implemented to support operators of domestic equipment in the form of reduced kerosene costs, then this lag in fuel efficiency will not mean worse parameters in terms of operating economics.
Panteleev emphasized that this is currently a calculated scenario, and no Il-96-400M is in commercial operation. But precisely for this reason, the question of its future economics is not yet closed.