Electronics and auto parts entering Russia through parallel import channels may rise in price by 15–30% within the next two months, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. This primarily concerns Apple, Samsung, Sony equipment, components for European brands, and industrial equipment.
The reason is the aggravation of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's maritime oil supplies and a significant volume of container cargo pass. Traffic through the strait has already decreased by 70%, insurance premiums for ships in the conflict zone have soared by 50%, and a number of major operators have suspended transit. The blow primarily affected the UAE, through which 40 to 60% of all parallel imports into Russia have passed in recent years.
Ships have begun to be redirected through the ports of Oman. With further escalation, the route may bypass Africa - any of these options adds 20–35% to the logistics cost. At the same time, even with a strong ruble, retail prices will rise: the process of delivering goods to Russia will become 20–30% more expensive, experts warn. Warehouse stocks of electronics and auto parts will last for 4–8 weeks - no shortage is expected yet, but retailers may begin to raise prices preventively even before the real increase in costs.
If the conflict can be resolved quickly, price increases may be limited to 5–10%. In the event of a protracted crisis, a 15–30% increase in price will become a reality - and even after the situation stabilizes, prices are unlikely to return to previous levels: logistics costs will no longer fall, experts believe.
