The Russian government expects to launch three Novatek LNG production projects by 2030.
According to the approved energy strategy until 2050, three Novatek projects — Arctic LNG-1, Murmansk LNG, and Obsky LNG — should be commissioned by 2030. These initiatives are designed to increase the total production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the country to 100 million tons per year. However, experts doubt the feasibility of these plans due to sanctions and logistical challenges.
Arctic LNG-1 and Murmansk LNG are designed for a capacity of 19.8 million and 20.4 million tons per year, respectively, and Obsky LNG — for 4.8 million tons. Together with existing projects (Yamal LNG, Sakhalin-2) and Gazprom's complex under construction in Ust-Luga (13.2 million tons), the total capacity should reach 105 million tons. However, current LNG production in Russia is significantly lower: in 2023, it amounted to 32.9 million tons, and in 2024 — 34.7 million tons.
The main difficulties are related to sanctions, which have slowed down the implementation of Novatek's key project — Arctic LNG-2. Despite the partial launch of the first line, the company has not yet officially announced the full operation of the plant. Sanctions have also limited access to ice-class gas carriers and European sales markets. In addition, the Arctic LNG-1 and Obsky LNG projects are still in the planning stage, and Murmansk LNG was announced only in 2023.
Experts believe that even partial implementation of the energy strategy will allow Russia to maintain its status as a key player in the LNG market, which could grow to 110–175 million tons per year by 2050.
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