As of January 2026, information about the "Oreshnik" medium-range ballistic missile system (MRBM) remains fragmented and mostly speculative due to the high degree of secrecy of the project. Nevertheless, based on open sources and expert assessments, it is possible to compile a generalized technical representation of the system.
The complex is being developed by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology (MIT), known for systems such as "Yars", "Bulava" and the "Rubezh" intercontinental ballistic missile. According to available data, the decision to create "Oreshnik" in a version with non-nuclear combat equipment was made in July 2023. It is assumed that theoretical work under the code name "Cedar" has been carried out since at least 2022.
The missile is likely a two-stage solid-propellant system equipped with a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV). Each combat element, according to estimates, can be equipped with its own control system and solid-propellant sustainer engine. This architecture increases resistance to missile defense systems due to the possibility of maneuvering and individual guidance.
The stage for deploying warheads, according to some reports, uses a multi-nozzle solid-propellant gas generator, which ensures accurate distribution of charges along specified trajectories. All sustainer engines of the missile are solid-propellant rocket motors (SRMs).
A non-nuclear cluster warhead is being considered as combat equipment. During testing, it is assumed that a design with 36 combat elements was used - six groups of six units each. Alternatively, heavy decoys could be used, simulating warheads to overcome missile defense. Combat elements may be equipped with their own booster SRMs. The temperature of heating of their surfaces when entering the atmosphere can reach 4000 °C. At the same time, experts do not exclude the possibility of subsequent development of a nuclear version of the warhead.
The composition of the "Oreshnik" MRBM division includes, according to possible estimates:
- three launchers based on the MZKT-79291 chassis;
- combat duty support vehicle (15V240M);
- command post (15V180);
- communication vehicle (15V190);
- engineering vehicle for camouflage and support (15M69M);
- unified thermal machine TM-80M.
Experts believe that "Oreshnik" is being developed as a high-precision, mobile and difficult-to-detect means for non-strategic deterrence.
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