The Russian auto industry is in for a serious reset. A new strategy for the sector's development is being prepared in the country. The development of the concept was discussed at the FinAuto conference in Moscow by Anatoly Grek, head of the "Transport and Logistics" practice at Strategy Partners. According to him, the document is already awaiting approval by the prime minister.
Work on the strategy began a year ago
According to Anatoly Grek, the market is now influenced less by economic factors than by geopolitical ones. That is why the strategy proposes focusing not on external conditions but on internal capabilities. Under these circumstances, the state is taking on the key role.
The essence of the approach is to determine in advance what the market should look like: how many national manufacturers should operate in it, what scale they need, and what platform solutions must be created.
The document also provides for mechanisms such as the special investment contract (SPIC) 2.0, its re-signing, and the formation of major industrial communities.
According to expert estimates, by 2035 the market could grow to 2.5-2.8 million vehicles.
The truck segment is a matter of sovereignty
As an illustrative example, experts cite the truck market, which is currently experiencing a "perfect storm."
According to Grek, Chinese manufacturers have gained significant weight in the Russian market, although domestic capacity allows for the production of more than 90 thousand trucks per year, which is roughly what the country needs.
He stressed that in this segment, technological sovereignty is becoming the key factor. Without KamAZ and Ural, he said, it is impossible to imagine the country's defense capability.
Based on this, state support in the coming years may be focused specifically on national manufacturers.
Betting on domestic components
The Ministry of Industry and Trade confirmed that the automotive industry development strategy through 2035 is currently being updated jointly with the industry community.
The document, approved in 2022, initially provided for the possibility of updates. It is now being revised taking into account the positions of various government bodies.
The main long-term goal is to provide citizens, businesses, and municipalities with affordable and high-quality domestically produced automotive equipment.
The strategy will take into account key factors: the balance between imports and local production, state support priorities, as well as the development of technologies and new types of fuel.
International cooperation
According to Aleksei Agureev, who previously worked with AvtoVAZ and UzAuto Motors, the Russian auto industry historically developed in close connection with international partners.
He cited Uzbekistan as an example: UzAuto Motors began as a joint venture and is now fully controlled by the national side while maintaining a strategic partnership with GM.
He also noted that it is important to develop domestic production of auto components.
There may be fewer car brands
According to Avtostat, the share of cars produced in Russia already exceeds half of sales, while the share of Chinese brands began to decline in the first quarter of 2026.
Experts expect the market to consolidate: of more than 60 brands, no more than 30 will remain that can realistically sustain sales and service.