Gazprom Neft has developed a digital system for predicting the state of permafrost in Yamal with a planning horizon of up to 2050. The company announced this on April 3, 2026. The digital model allows assessing changes in permafrost soils, on the temperature of which the reliability of buildings, roads and engineering networks depends. The system describes the western part of the Yamal Peninsula in areas with an area of more than 15 thousand square kilometers. In the future, it will be expanded to the Urengoyskoye, Pestsovoye, Vostochno-Messoyakhskoye and Yamburgskoye fields, and by 2028 to other regions of Eastern and Western Siberia.
How the digital model of permafrost is arranged
The system is based on data from 3.5 thousand engineering-geological wells, space surveys, field and laboratory studies. The model reflects the structure, temperature, physical-mechanical and thermophysical properties of soils and rocks. This allows assessing the current state of permafrost, identifying risk factors and tracking processes in the subsoil. The created service makes it possible to predict changes in soil properties with high accuracy, which is important for the safe operation of existing facilities and the design of new ones in the Arctic region.
The digital system we have created will allow us to model changes in the cryolithozone for decades to come and will help to develop complex fields in the Far North in an environmentally friendly way
The company also announced that it is ready to share model data with government bodies, given that the Russian government has decided to create a state permafrost monitoring system based on Roshydromet.
Context
Previously, the assessment of the state of permafrost soils was carried out pointwise for individual wells without a single forecast model. The new digital twin combines drilling data, satellite images and laboratory studies on a scale of 15 thousand km² for the first time. The system allows modeling thermal processes in soils for 25 years ahead, taking into account global warming and man-made loads. This gives designers accurate parameters for calculating foundations and engineering structures.
The cryolithozone occupies more than 60% of the territory of Russia. The thawing of permafrost threatens buildings, pipelines and roads, especially in Yamal, where large deposits are concentrated.