Translated with AI from the Russian original.
On the morning of February 1, a gradual increase in the speed of the solar wind began. As of 08:00 in the morning, the average speed was approximately 400 km/s, which scientists consider a normal background value. However, as of 15:00, the wind speed exceeded 600 km/s.
However, the increased solar wind speed is not enough for the development of a geomagnetic storm that will be able to give the northern lights to residents of middle latitudes.
The situation can be compared to a burner from which gas began to flow. And in order for the fire to start, you need to light a match. This "match" is a favorable polarity of the BZ index.
Currently, this index is unstable; it is necessary to wait for its constant negative value. Only in this case will the visibility of the aurora become available south of the Arctic Circle.
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