Data indicating that the growth rate of industrial production in Russia will slow down by half in 2025 — to 2% after 4% in 2024 — is contained in the basic version of the new macro forecast for the period up to 2027 from the Ministry of Economic Development. RBC writes about this, referring to this document, which is at the disposal of the editors.
The Ministry of Economic Development predicts a significant slowdown in 2025 for the following areas, which are currently demonstrating sustainable growth due to import substitution:
- production of computers, electronic and optical products. In 2023, this sub-industry increased production by 36.2%, and in 2024 its projected growth rate will be 29.7%. But in 2025, the growth rate will slow down to 2.5%, gradually increasing to 6.8% by 2027;
- production of finished metal products: boilers, metal products, tanks, and so on. In 2023, the production of finished metal products increased by 28%, in 2024 it is expected to increase by 30.9%. But in 2025, the growth rate will decrease to 4.3% and will not exceed 5.2% over the entire forecast horizon. The only exceptions are machinery and equipment;
- production of «other» vehicles and equipment: aircraft construction, shipbuilding, railway equipment, state defense order. In 2023, this industry showed growth of 30.2%, in 2024 it is seen within 15.1%, and in 2025 it is expected to fall to 5%. But in 2026, it is predicted to grow by 5.8%;
- production of electrical equipment. In 2023, this sub-industry increased production by 21%, in 2024 it is expected to begin to slow down to 7.2%, and in 2025, according to the basic forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, it will fall to 2.8% altogether.
However, the Ministry of Economic Development noted in a conversation with RBC that the forecast «is not a self-fulfilling document, therefore updated national projects underlie it», and they «will ensure not only the fulfillment of the tasks set by the president, but also the economy's entry onto a trajectory of sustainable growth».
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