In September, gasoline prices in Russia, according to experts' forecasts, will grow at a moderate pace, not exceeding the annual inflation rate. The increase is expected to be less than 1% per month, which is due to the dynamics of consumer prices, which reached the official inflation ceiling in August. The dynamics of diesel fuel prices are predicted to be below inflation. The main gasoline brands, such as AI-92 and AI-95, are likely to be under state control.
In August, gasoline prices rose significantly: AI-92 rose from 47,229 to 58,448 rubles per ton, AI-95 from 53,016 to 72,110 rubles per ton. Diesel fuel prices rose from 60,356 to 61,691 rubles per ton. The peak of price growth occurred in June and July, which is associated with a drop in fuel margins and an increase in wholesale market prices. The main factors of price growth were the high level of logistics costs, the decrease in retail fuel margins, and the shortage of AI-95 gasoline, partly caused by scheduled repairs of refineries.
Experts point out that logistical problems and fluctuations in oil prices may affect price increases in the autumn period, but a sharp increase in prices is not expected. Given the current fuel reserves and overproduction of diesel fuel, as well as the available reserve stocks, there should be no sudden strong price increase. Problems with logistics, unscheduled repairs of refineries, or a sharp increase in demand may cause local disruptions, but they should not lead to significant price jumps.
Earlier it was reported that diesel fuel production in Russia decreased by 7.5% after the explosion at the Omsk Refinery. In August, 7.1 million tons of diesel fuel were produced, which is 600 thousand tons less compared to June figures. The largest decrease in output is observed at the Omsk, Ryazan, Volgograd and Novokuibyshevsk refineries.
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Fire occurred at the Omsk Oil Refinery