The resumption of diesel fuel exports to the US could increase pressure on prices within Russia. After the lifting of export restrictions, oil companies once again have the opportunity to choose between the domestic market and foreign buyers, and more favorable foreign contracts could reduce supply for Russian consumers.
Since the beginning of 2026, retail diesel prices have risen by approximately 14%. In the wholesale segment, the increase has been even sharper: since February, the cost per ton of fuel has doubled, exceeding 100 thousand rubles. Against this backdrop, the return of exports creates additional risk for prices at gas stations.
Previously, restrictions on foreign supplies were introduced to keep more fuel within the country and prevent shortages. Now, refiners can again consider the difference between domestic and foreign prices when choosing buyers. If exports prove more profitable, some diesel may go abroad, increasing competition for available volumes in Russia.
The issue becomes particularly acute before winter, when uninterrupted diesel supplies are crucial for freight transport, agriculture, and utilities. However, price increases are not guaranteed: much will depend on export volumes, refinery production, and the actual fuel balance within the country.
Consequently, the danger lies not so much in the resumption of supplies to the United States, but in how much more attractive the foreign market becomes for Russian producers. If domestic supply decreases, this could lead to increased pressure on prices.