Scientists at South Ural State University (SUSU) have proposed a method that allows calculating the real peak load on the grid based on average monthly electricity consumption data. The development is especially relevant for non-gasified regions where people widely use electric heaters and boilers.
Researchers analyzed meter readings from 226 apartments in Chelyabinsk and two cities in Tajikistan — Dushanbe and Khorog. Chelyabinsk has gas and hot water, while Tajikistan does not. The result: during peak hours, the actual load in Dushanbe and Khorog exceeds the norm by up to 2.5 times, while the average daily load remains within normal limits. The grids sag precisely in the morning and evening when heaters are massively switched on.
Scientists derived a generalizing coefficient A, which takes into account air temperature, altitude above sea level, building design, and even the material well-being of residents. By substituting it into the formula along with data from ordinary monthly meters, power engineers obtain the peak load without expensive hourly measurements. The method's error is no more than 5%, which was confirmed by comparison with experiments and neural network calculations.
For the industry, this means abandoning regular measurements at each transformer: it is enough to set up the model once and use it for years. The approach allows for adequate capacities to be laid down at the design stage, reducing the risk of accidents and extending equipment life. The developers plan to adapt the method for regions with harsh climates.