Russian civilian drones have not yet been able to approach the production rates of mass-produced military UAVs, although it is the serial production of cheap aircraft that could become the basis for the development of unmanned cargo aviation. This was pointed out by aviation expert and author of the SkyExpert channel, comparing the prospects of civilian UAVs with the situation around the LMS-901 "Baikal".
The reason for the comparison was the concept of the unmanned Cessna SkyCourier UX from Textron Aviation and Merlin presented in the USA. The machine is proposed to be used for autonomous cargo delivery to remote and dangerous areas.
According to SkyExpert, Russia already has an example of a completely different scale of production – the production of the "Geran" family. The aviation blogger refers to foreign estimates, according to which about 11 thousand such UAVs are produced in the country, and the cost of one aircraft is around 100 thousand dollars, or approximately 8 million rubles.
It is the cost and production rate that SkyExpert considers indicative when comparing with "Baikal". According to his estimate, one aircraft for 8 million rubles turns out to be about 40 times cheaper than the LMS-901, the cost of which was previously estimated at about 300 million rubles.
Earlier, SkyExpert separately indicated that the price of about 300 million rubles calls into question the economics of the project, since airlines acquire aircraft of this class in quantities of only a few units per year.
The expert's conclusion concerns not so much the direct replacement of "Baikal" with a drone, but rather the approach to the development of civil aviation. According to SkyExpert, Russia already has proven experience in mass production of relatively inexpensive unmanned aerial vehicles, while civilian UAVs face the problem of a lack of a stable market and customers. Therefore, he considers the creation of cheap cargo drones and bringing their production at least to rates that would be significantly inferior to the current production of "Geraniums" to be a promising direction.