For banks, the digital ruble is not just a new payment system, but also a potential loss of part of their usual income. According to the National Rating Agency, if it accounts for about 14% of cashless transactions, banks could lose more than 100 billion rubles in commissions annually.
The main reason is simple: some payments will shift from bank cards to the Bank of Russia platform. This means banks will earn less from acquiring – the commissions they receive for card payments in stores and services.
There is also a second risk – an outflow of funds from accounts. The NRA believes that at least 10% of client funds could move to digital wallets within five years. This is sensitive for banks: the less money remains in accounts, the more expensive it becomes for them to attract resources for loans and other operations.
At the same time, experts do not expect a rapid mass transition. In the next one to two years, the digital ruble will likely remain a niche tool, and in five to seven years, its share could range from 5% to 30% of cashless payments. The NRA's base scenario is 15–24%.
I don't see any clear interest in this instrument, except from the Central Bank.
Connection also costs money. According to the NRA, integrating the digital ruble could cost one bank 100–300 million rubles. This is especially sensitive for smaller players: even with costs of 100 million rubles and a 0.1% commission, approximately 10 billion rubles in payments would need to be processed just to break even.
Starting September 1, systemically important banks and significant payment market participants must already provide clients with the ability to work with digital rubles, and large retail chains must accept them for payment. However, the money will be stored on the Central Bank platform, not in a commercial bank. No interest will be accrued on digital rubles, and loans in them are also not provided.
People will always have the choice of how to receive their salaries and pensions: in cash, to a cashless bank account, or in digital rubles.
Ultimately, for clients, the digital ruble becomes another way to pay and store money. And for banks, it's a system that requires investment now, while significant returns may only appear years later.
Read more on the topic:
- Digital Ruble: New Form of Money Could Threaten Bank Revenues
- Digital Ruble Exits Test: What Will Change for Russians from September 1