Belarusian gasoline, which in recent weeks has become one of the additional sources of supply for the Russian market, is rapidly rising in price. According to the National Exchange Pricing Agency, the cost of AI-92 gasoline with delivery to Russia has increased by almost 1.8 times since the beginning of May, and in the last week alone, it has added another 6%, reaching 127 thousand rubles per ton.
The price increase is associated with increased demand amid a seasonal increase in fuel consumption and a local supply deficit in certain regions of Russia. Market participants cite more predictable contract execution times as an additional advantage of Belarusian refineries: deliveries are usually completed within 30 days without postponements, whereas in the Russian market, terms can extend to 35–60 days.
Despite growing interest, analysts believe that imports from Belarus will not be able to significantly affect the balance of the Russian market. The production capacities of the two Belarusian oil refineries are limited and can only cover a portion of the demand, primarily in the central regions of the country.
Expert Sergey Pravdin notes that Belarusian prices today remain one of the most objective market benchmarks for assessing fuel costs, as mechanisms to limit sharp price fluctuations continue to operate on Russian exchange trades.
At the same time, authorities do not rule out the possibility of expanding petroleum product imports if economically viable offers are available. However, experts warn that it is difficult to quickly find significant volumes of gasoline on the world market due to logistical constraints and high competition for available batches.