A large coronal hole on the Sun has an 85% probability of causing G1-G2 level magnetic disturbances near Earth on May 15. This was reported by specialists from the Laboratory of Solar Astronomy of IKI RAS and ISZF SB RAS.
The region with an open magnetic field has already entered the geoeffective zone, and a stream of high-speed solar wind will reach our planet's magnetosphere on Friday. Scientists emphasize that interaction cannot be avoided – the forecast is based solely on the strength of the impact.
An additional factor of uncertainty is created by the plasma ejection from May 10. Calculation models show that its edge could have reached near-Earth space on May 13, but the accuracy of forecasting the direction of such clouds is limited by an error of 3-5 degrees. This is enough for the ejection to pass by or, conversely, to hit the planet with denser areas.
The main intrigue of the coming days remains active region 4436, which is approaching the central meridian of the Sun. The sunspot group has already produced two significant mass ejections – on May 7 and 10. If the region has accumulated energy for a new explosion in three days, a flare could occur on May 13-14 and lead to a direct hit on the magnetosphere. The probability of such a scenario is about 30%, and no visible precursors have been recorded yet.
G1-G2 level magnetic storms on the NOAA scale do not pose a threat to human health on the surface, but they can cause short-term disruptions in satellite navigation, degrade the quality of shortwave radio communications, and provoke weak fluctuations in power grids in polar regions.