Coronagraphs and X-ray profiles recorded a large plasma ejection on the Sun. As of March 28, the center of the cloud is moving at an angle of about 60° from the direction of Earth and is noticeably shifted downwards relative to the ecliptic plane. The probability of a direct hit on our planet is estimated as low — only edge contacts with the outermost peripheral parts are possible. The speed of plasma propagation is approximately 800–1000 km/s, the time to reach Earth's orbit with such a trajectory is 2–3 days.
Ejection Dynamics and Risks for Spacecraft
The ejection belongs to the class of coronal mass ejections (CME) with a wide front. Its source is an active region on the far side of the Sun, which has begun to emerge onto the visible disk. Despite the fact that the center of the cloud is moving away, the peripheral layers may touch the Earth's magnetosphere, causing weak or moderate geomagnetic disturbances (G1–G2 on the NOAA scale).
The main danger is for spacecraft outside the magnetosphere. On the night of April 1-2, NASA's lunar mission Artemis 2 is scheduled to launch: the Orion spacecraft with four astronauts will go to the Moon and, for the first time in 50 years, will enter open interplanetary space. On distant trajectories, there is no magnetic field protection, and the flow of solar protons creates a radiation load on the crew and electronics.
Parameters of the Current Plasma Ejection
- Type: coronal mass ejection (CME)
- Angle from the Earth – Sun direction: ~60°
- Vertical displacement: downwards relative to the ecliptic
- Probability of a direct hit: low
- Expected impact: edge contacts, weak magnetic storms possible
For planning lunar expeditions, predicting CME becomes a critical factor. In near-Earth orbits, crews are protected by the magnetosphere, and on the trajectory to the Moon, the spacecraft ends up inside the plasma cloud.