The surplus of gondola cars and tank cars, which today is measured in tens of thousands of units, may turn into an acute shortage as early as next year, reports «Kommersant». Due to the sharp increase in the cost of overhaul and low transportation profitability, owners prefer to send cars to lay-up rather than restore them.
According to forecasts from the Information Center of Operators (ICO), a shortage of tank cars may arise as early as February 2027 (4,000 units) and grow to 16,000 by December. Gondola cars will begin to be in short supply from April — a shortage of 13,000 units is expected, which will then decrease to 3–7 thousand depending on the month, and in July and August a return to surplus is possible. For comparison: today the surplus of gondola cars is estimated at 56,000, tank cars — at 18,000.
The ICO notes: the rolling stock fleet is decreasing due to an increase in the number of faulty cars that are not being restored — demand for them is low, and the requirements for acceptance after major repairs have become stricter. The cost of overhauling gondola cars has increased by 3.7–4 times (up to 1.2–1.5 million rubles), and the number of such works has decreased by 90%. For tank cars, the decrease was 5–7 times. At the same time, fees for gondola cars do not even cover leasing costs.
Russian Railways (OAO RZD) views the situation more calmly. They calculated that in 2026 the retirement of gondola cars will be 16.7 thousand, tank cars — 12.6 thousand, in 2027 — 16.6 thousand and 8.1 thousand, respectively. Production, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in 2026 will reach 22.6 thousand gondola cars and 13.3 thousand tank cars, and for 2027, factories have preliminarily announced 15.6 thousand gondola cars and 7.4 thousand tank cars.
It follows from the above that a shortage of the fleet is not predicted. Car repair enterprises are ready to master such a volume of repairs, while operators themselves make decisions — to repair these cars or remove them from operation.