According to data from the Solar Astronomy Laboratory of the Institute for Space Research (IKI RAN) and the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISZF), the first significant geomagnetic storm of the new year is expected on the night of January 2-3. It was caused by a powerful solar flare triggered by an M7.1 class flare, recorded on December 31, 2025, between 16:12 and 17:11 Moscow time.
The coronal mass ejection, directed partially towards Earth, is capable of causing a geomagnetic disturbance of level G2 on the NOAA scale. Experts estimate the probability of it intensifying to level G3 and above at approximately 30%.
Despite the activity of the coronal hole that affected the magnetosphere on New Year's Eve, no serious disturbances were recorded. Only weak auroras were observed at northern latitudes from 65° to 75°, but their visual observation was difficult due to dense cloud cover. In the coming days, the coronal hole will continue to have an impact, which may cause additional, albeit minor, changes in the geomagnetic background.
Currently, the global forecast for the first ten days of January remains favorable: predominantly low and moderate geomagnetic activity is expected. Only new powerful solar flares can significantly change the situation, but the probability of their occurrence in the coming weeks is estimated as low. Most of the forecast map is colored in "green" - calm - zones.