A group of Russian researchers from MIPT has developed artificial intelligence that can analyze data from international meteorological services. The neural network predicts extreme vortices and storms in the Arctic at high speed—approximately 50 times faster than traditional complex models. The development will significantly improve weather forecasts in the Russian Arctic sector.
The neural network provides a highly detailed forecast for the Barents and Kara Seas more than 50 times faster than resource-intensive physical models. In addition, it shows storms that other approaches do not reproduce.
Research in this area has been ongoing for many years. Currently, global meteorological models with low spatial resolution, which are unable to predict small atmospheric vortices, or high-precision hydrodynamic models, which require enormous computational resources and time, are used to assess the behavior of the ocean and its impact on the climate on Earth.
Scientists from MIPT trained the AI on the results of calculations obtained using the WRF hydrodynamic model. To do this, the researchers prepared a dataset describing the weather in the Arctic in 2015-2021.
Using this approach, the team calculated changes in the weather in the region, and then compared the AI predictions with real data and the results of WRF calculations and the global meteorological model ERA5.
The MIPT AI system not only accurately predicted the main weather fluctuations in the area, but also was able to reproduce the so-called Novaya Zemlya bora, a strong cold wind that moves quickly from the mountain ranges of Novaya Zemlya and poses a danger to navigation.
Mikhail Krinitsky, Head of the Laboratory of Machine Learning in Earth Sciences at MIPT, noted that the neural network significantly outperformed the ERA5 model in predicting vortex structures, and its results almost completely coincided with the data from the reference WRF model. In the future, this will allow for more accurate and less costly prediction of extreme weather events, ensuring the safety of navigation, port operations, and oil and gas platforms in the Arctic.