In the coming weekend, May 17–18, 2025, the geomagnetic situation on Earth is expected to worsen.
The reason will be a large coronal hole — an area with reduced plasma density on the Sun, which currently occupies a significant part of the solar disk. Initially, the object was located below the equator of the star, but over the past day it has expanded towards the Earth's orbit, increasing the likelihood of exposure to a high-speed solar wind stream.
According to space telescopes, the speed of charged particles will increase from the current 400 km/s to 600–700 km/s. This may provoke magnetic storms with a strength of 1–3 points on a five-level scale.
The probability of strong disturbances is estimated at 30–40%, while moderate fluctuations (yellow level) and a stable situation (green) have similar chances. An accurate forecast will be possible after the start of wind speed growth, when the reaction of the Earth's magnetosphere becomes clear.
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