The exact orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4 will remain unknown until 2028, according to Vladimir Busarev, a leading researcher at the Sternberg State Astronomical Institute of Moscow State University (GAISh MSU).
The object, discovered in late December 2024 by the ATLAS network telescope in Chile, has a diameter of 40 to 90 meters. According to preliminary calculations, it may collide with Earth in December 2032. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (NASA/JPL) estimated the probability of collision at 2.2%.
According to Busarev, complete data on the asteroid's orbit is needed to definitively answer the question of whether the asteroid will collide with Earth. The orbital period of 2024 YR4 around the Sun is about four years, and until it is completed, the information will remain incomplete. The scientist noted that many near-Earth asteroids belonging to the Apollo family move in elongated orbits that can change under the influence of gravitational perturbations from large celestial bodies.
Such objects require regular observation, as their orbits change rapidly under the influence of the gravitational fields of the Earth, as well as the planets Mercury, Venus, Mars, and the Sun. According to preliminary estimates, asteroid 2024 YR4 may be several times larger than the Chelyabinsk meteorite that fell to Earth in 2013.
Busarev emphasized that the probability of the asteroid colliding with Earth is currently low and there is no cause for serious concern. Comprehensive information about the object's orbit will not appear until 2028.
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