Analysts at SberCIB Investment Research presented a forecast according to which Bitcoin could rise to $122.7 thousand by the end of 2027 and to $282.3 thousand by the end of 2030. For calculations, experts combined three models that take into account the state of the global financial system, mining costs, and the cryptocurrency's potential competition with gold.
The first model analyzes global liquidity — the amount of funds available for investment, as well as interest rates and financial market dynamics. It is most effective for short-term forecasts up to three months. When tested against historical data, the model correctly identified the direction of price movement in 75% of observations.
The second model links the value of Bitcoin to its mining costs. If mining becomes unprofitable, some participants turn off their equipment, which gradually changes the network's economics. The third model considers the cryptocurrency's potential competition with gold, including a scenario where the world's largest central banks begin to use Bitcoin to form reserves.
In the final forecast, the global liquidity model accounts for 50%, mining cost for 45%, and competition with gold for 5%. The baseline scenario assumes a decrease in US inflation, stabilization of fiscal policy, moderate stock market growth, and cheaper gold.
Under unfavorable conditions, the forecast may be significantly more modest. If US interest rates remain high, the stock market is weak, and gold continues to rise, the global liquidity model suggests a Bitcoin value of about $100 thousand in 2027 and $164 thousand in 2030.